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Markets Await ECB Policy Announcement

“Whatever it takes, whatever we must, without undue delay, no limits,” are some of the words ECB President Mario Draghi has used regarding more stimulus over the last several months, but today we’ll see if he’s ready to put the money where his mouth is. Expectations the central bank will announce additional easing measures are running high, and Draghi has an arsenal of possible support measures at his disposal. Among them: Pushing the deposit rate further into negative territory, an expansion of the bank’s trillion-euro bond-buying program, and a new or revised low-interest, long-term loan program.

Economy

An unexpected rate cut by New Zealand’s central bank (by 25 bps to 2.25%) triggered a big slide in the kiwi today and sparked talk of a global currency war as countries look to revitalize their economies in a world of slow growth. The move follows the BOJ’s historic decision in January to adopt negative interest rates and comes hours ahead of the ECB’s policy review. Meanwhile, South Korea’s won weakened slightly after the Bank of Korea opted to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.5%, although that decision was mostly anticipated.

Chinese stocks fell 2% overnight as investors interpreted data showing consumer inflation rising faster than forecast as being largely negative for an economy struggling to find momentum. Consumer inflation advanced 2.3% in February, accelerating at its fastest pace since July 2014, but producer prices remained stubbornly weak. “Higher inflation in a weak economy is not a good thing, because it limits the room for monetary easing while increasing people’s living costs,” said Yang Hai, strategist at Kaiyuan Securities. Separately, the PBOC is preparing regulation that would allow commercial banks to swap bad company debt for equity in those firms.

Geopolitical tensions across the globe: Kim Jong-un has threatened “special” military steps against South Korea hours after firing short-range ballistic missiles off its eastern coast and liquidating Seoul’s assets in its territory. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said Washington will take action if the Iran nuclear accord is violated, following Tehran’s test-firing of missiles over the past few days. Ukraine parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Hroisman declared that the nation is “running out of time” to resolve its political crisis, reiterating calls for a government shake-up to end months of infighting that’s jeopardizing the flow of international aid.

Saudi Arabia is seeking a bank loan of between $6B-$8B, in what would be the first significant foreign borrowing by the kingdom’s government in over a decade. Riyadh has asked lenders to submit proposals to extend it a five-year U.S. dollar loan of that size, with an option to increase it, to help plug a record budget shortfall caused by low oil prices. The kingdom’s deficit reached nearly $100B last year.

Cyprus has just exited its three-year bailout program having passed requirements for reforms and cuts, but its finance minister remains coy about the country’s return to the international credit markets. “I cannot confirm when, but we will be out and about in the markets,” Harris Georgiades told CNBC. “We are back in growth, the debt is coming down, the non-performing loans are being restructured fast, so the positive trajectory is clear to markets.”

With almost all U.S. presidential candidates voicing strong opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership in its current form, fellow countries involved in the deal are expressing worries about the trade pact’s future. Japan’s chief negotiator told an Asia Society forum in Washington that trying to alter one aspect of the pact for the U.S. would open the door for 11 other countries to ask for changes. “TPP to me is something like a delicate, fragile glasswork, so if we want to cut one part of it, that will destroy everything,” Hiroshi Oe said. “About renegotiation of the substance, that’s no possibility.”

Stocks

Twitter is sweetening its employee compensation packages to stem a talent drain, a pressing move that may be followed by other tech firms with sinking share prices. Over the past month, the social media company has been offering additional restricted stock across the company, extending from the upper ranks to junior-level staff. Since the fall, Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) has also been doling out cash bonuses to some employees ranging from $50K-$200K as an incentive to keep workers around for another six months to a year. TWTR -62% over the past 52 weeks.

Another speechless moment for AI? AlphaGo, Google’s (GOOG, GOOGL) Go-playing computer, again outwitted world champion Lee Se-dol in the second of a five match Go tournament. “Hard for us to believe” tweeted Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind. “AlphaGo played some beautiful creative moves in this game. Mega-tense…” Lee, the world’s top Go player for the past decade, had predicted he would easily win the competition, which started on Wednesday.

The head of Volkswagen’s American operations is stepping down “to pursue other opportunities,” nearly six months after the German automaker admitted to installing software that allowed 600K diesel U.S. vehicles to emit excess emissions. The sudden departure of Michael Horn adds to the strategic uncertainty for Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAY), particularly in the United States, where sales have been plummeting and dealers have been grumbling.

Looking to gain an edge in the auto industry’s self-driving race, Toyota (NYSE:TM) has recruited the entire staff (16 employees) of Jaybridge Robotics, a small Massachusetts-based autonomous-vehicle company. The move reflects a trend among auto industry companies to rapidly build their R&D skills by taking over small and specialized companies, or raiding a company’s workforce. Toyota last year pledged to invest $1B into artificial intelligence research, with a big focus on autonomous vehicles.

Beginning this month, Honda (NYSE:HMC) will compensate U.S. dealers for depreciation costs of vehicles that cannot be sold due to the massive recall linked to potentially faulty air bag inflators made by Takata (OTCPK:TKTDY). According toAutomotive News, the company will also provide financial assistance to offset floor-planning costs resulting from the temporary suspension of sales at Honda and Acura dealers. In January, American Honda ordered a stop-sale on 1.7M new and used cars from model years 2007-2015.

State prosecutors have charged Brazil’s former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with hiding his ownership interest in a beachfront apartment, adding to the growing legal woes of Brazil’s most prominent political figure. Prosecutors say da Silva’s concealment constitutes a form of money laundering, which is a criminal offense. The Guarujá apartment is also part of a separate federal probe, known as Operation Car Wash, centered around state-run oil company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) that has denied any wrongdoing.

Royal Dutch Shell CEO Ben van Beurden’s total direct remuneration fell 8% last year to €5.1M ($5.6M), the company said in its annual report. His total package, including pension and tax equalization, was €5.6M, down from €24.2M in the previous year, mainly due to a significant fall in pension income that was positively affected by his promotion to chief executive of Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) in 2014. In comparison, rival BP CEO Bob Dudley’s total remuneration rose 20% to $19.6M, despite the firm delivering one of the lowest profits in its history.

Shares of Nasdaq were halted yesterday after the exchange operator said it would buy the International Securities Exchange from Deutsche Borse (OTCPK:DBOEY) for $1.1B. ISE operates three electronic options exchanges – ISE, ISE Gemini and ISE Mercury – that serve as venues for more than 15% of trading in U.S. options. With those, Nasdaq (NASDAQ:NDAQ) would have six exchanges handling 38% of U.S. volume, taking the market lead from CBOE.

Moody’s is withdrawing from the Russian domestic market as global rating agencies get caught in a dilemma between new Russian laws and Western sanctions. Fresh “legislative changes and other potential restrictions” require companies to issue local ratings only through a subsidiary in the country that agrees to certain conditions, including a guarantee not to withdraw ratings even if asked by a foreign government. Besides Moody’s (NYSE:MCO), Standard & Poor’s (NYSE:MHFI) and Fitch are also considering their options.

Alibaba has signed a deal for a $3B five-year loan, which will help the e-commerce giant as it snaps up stakes in Chinese and overseas firms. The company said the loan will be used for “general corporate purposes,” but with having close to $10B in net cash at the end of calendar Q4 and its core businesses throwing off plenty of cash flow, there’s speculation that Alibaba’s (NYSE:BABA) new funds will be used for additional M&A.

Nine months after receiving a $10B valuation and fifteen months after getting a $5B valuation, shared workspace provider WeWork (Private:VWORK) is raising $430M at an eye-popping $16B valuation. Chinese firms Hony Capital and Legend Holdings led the round, which comes as WeWork hatches plans to expand to Beijing, Seoul, Hong Kong, and other major Asia-Pacific cities. The company currently operates in 65 locations, the lion’s share of which are in the U.S.

Wednesday’s Key Earnings
Box (NYSE:BOX) +10.5% AH after beating expectations, healthy outlook.
Square (NYSE:SQ) +1.7% AH on strong volume growth, positive guidance.
Today’s Markets
In Asia, Japan +1.3% to 16852. Hong Kong -0.1% to 19984. China -2% to 2805. India-0.7% to 24623.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.4%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude -0.5% to $38.10. Gold-0.6% to $1249.40.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.87%

Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Quarterly Services Report
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
1:00 PM Results of $12B, 30-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM Treasury Budget
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

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