Forex updates from Alertel Systems- The best buy sell signal software

By Alertel India

Forex updates from Alertel Systems- The best buy sell signal software

With Yellen preparing to raise interest rates and the market gearing up for stronger U.S. data, the dollar extended its gains against all of the major currencies.

The only currency that did not end the week higher against was the euro and that was because of the ECB. The commodity currencies were hit particularly hard while the sterling crumbled under the weight of Brexit. The week ahead will be another busy one with four central bank rate decisions, Australia and the U.K.’s employment report and the possible trigger of Article 50 on the docket.

US DOLLAR

Data Review

Factory Orders 1.2% vs. 1.0% Expected
Durable Goods Orders 2.0% vs. 1.0% Expected
Trade Balance $-48.5b vs. $-48.5b Expected
JN Trade Balance -¥853.4b vs. -¥800.2b Expected
JN GDP 0.3% vs. 0.4% Expected
JN Current Account ¥1259.8b vs.¥1464.1b Expected
ADP Employment Change 298k vs. 185k Expected
Non-Farm Payroll Change 235k vs. 200k Expected
Unemployment Rate 4.7% vs. 4.7% Expected
Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% vs. 0.3% Expected

Data Preview

US PPI Final Demand- Potential for downside surprise given weaker import price growth
Empire Manufacturing, CPI and Retail Sales- Potential for upside surprise given gas prices increased in Feb. Redbook retail sales up and wage growth should have increased
FOMC Rate Decision- Likely to be USD positive with rate hike
BOJ Policy Balance Rate- No changes are expected
Housing Starts, Building Permits and Philly Fed- Will have to see how Empire State fares but housing starts and building permits are difficult to predict
Industrial Production- Potential for upside surprise given stronger ISM Manufacturing index
University of Mich. Sentiment Report- Potential for downside surprise given first drop in IBD/TIPP index since Trump got elected

Key Levels – USD/JPY

Support 113.50

Resistance 116.00

Investors took earnings on their lengthy U.S. dollar positions at the returned of Friday’s non-farm payrolls record. Job boom changed into solid and the unemployment rate progressed however average hourly earnings grew less than predicted. With the U.S. Dollar growing as a whole lot because it had in advance of the labor marketplace document, this one minor miss was the excuse that buyers had been watching for to unwind their positions. Overall, the exertions facts changed into solid with 235K jobs introduced inside the month of February and the unemployment charge revised right down to 4.7% from 4.8%. Payroll growth in January turned into also revised higher so even as average hourly income increase did not boost up as lots as anticipated the 0.2% increase in conjunction with the 0.1% upgrade to January wage growth makes the general record supportive of March tightening. Unfortunately it wasn’t suitable enough to increase the greenback’s profits into the weekend but we count on some other leg higher in USD/JPY within the days earlier than the FOMC fee selection. We must see one hundred fifteen again and probably even 116 if Janet Yellen shows that the next fee hike can be faster in preference to later or June in place of September.

It is essential to remember the fact that at the stop of the day, nowadays non-farm payrolls record does now not modify the Federal Reserve’s plans for this week’s monetary coverage assembly. When Janet Yellen remaining spoke she made it very clean that so long as the economy progressed as anticipated, a March hike could be appropriate. Investors are at the identical page with Fed fund futures pricing in one hundred% hazard of a hike this week. Data has been notably proper with pastime increasing inside the carrier and manufacturing sectors, inflation at the upward push, core spending developing, sentiment preserving company and housing market hobby resilient notwithstanding better mortgage costs. Stocks additionally climbed to fresh document highs over the last month thanks in part to President Trump’s infrastructure and protection spending plans. If the Fed doesn’t increase hobby prices in March, they chance falling at the back of and this stays authentic after Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The pullback within the dollar becomes not anything greater than earnings taking and we expect renewed energy in the dollar as opposed to the Japanese Yen and British pound. Aside from the FOMC rate selection, consumer spending, retail income, housing and production reports are also due for release. The Bank of Japan has a rate choice as well but in contrast to the Federal Reserve, no changes are expected from the BoJ.

BRITISH POUND

Data Review

Halifax Plc House Prices 0.1% vs. 0.4% Expected
RICS House Price Balance 24% vs. 23%% Expected
Industrial Production -0.4% vs. -0.5% Expected
Manufacturing Production -0.9% vs. -0.7% Expected
Construction Output -0.4% vs. -0.2% Expected
Visible Trade Balance -£10.830b vs. -£11.100b Expected
Trade Balance Non-EU -£2.450b vs. -£2.425b Expected
Total Trade Balance -£1.979b vs. -£3.100b Expected
NESIR GDP Estimate 0.6% vs. 0.6% Expected

Data Preview

Industrial and Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance- Potential for downside surprise given drop in manufacturing PMI index
Employment Report- Manufacturing, service and construction sectors report steady job growth but last month’s data may be hard to beat
BoE Rate Decision- No changes expected. BoE to remain cautious with softer data and Brexit

Key Levels – GBP/USD

Support 1.2000

Resistance 1.2300

EURO

Data Review

GE Construction PMI 54.1 vs. 52.0 Prior
GE Retail PMI 51.2 vs. 50.3 Prior
EZ Retail PMI 49.9 vs. 50.1 Prior
GE Factory Orders -7.4% vs. -2.5% Expected
EZ GDP 0.4% vs. 0.4% Expected
GE Industrial Production 2.8% vs. 2.6% Expected
ECB Holds Rates Steady at 0.0%
Draghi sees Eurozone risks less pronounced but present due to global factors
GE Trade Balance 14.8b vs. 18.0b
GE Current Account Balance 12.8b vs. 15.5b

Data Preview

EZ Industrial Production and GE ZEW Survey- ZEW is difficult to call especially with political uncertainty. Stronger German Industrial Production
SNB Rate Decision- No changes expected but SNB still wants to keep CHF weak
EZ CPI- Potential for upside surprise given sharp rise in German CPI
EZ Trade Balance- Potential for downside surprise given major drop in French trade
Key Levels – EUR/USD

Support 1.0600

Resistance 1.0800

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